Indonesia’s palm oil industry is built for global trade, but the next phase is about where that trade goes. Multiple market studies describe Southeast Asia as the core of global supply, with Indonesia and Malaysia providing the scale that feeds both domestic and international demand. One analysis states Indonesia and Malaysia together account for approximately 85% of global output, and another frames Indonesia as supplying over 55% of the world’s supply. In 2025, Indonesia’s palm oil sector was described as commanding 55.5% of global exports. That dominance gives Jakarta room to diversify export destinations while keeping the value chain moving through established supply networks.
Recent trade shocks made diversification more than a slogan. In April 2025, a 32% U.S. tariff on Indonesian palm oil forced exporters to recalibrate, and U.S. imports were reported as having dropped from $1.51 billion in 2024. At the same time, Indonesia’s producers faced mixed export performance. Crude palm oil (CPO) exports fell 12.6% in Q1 2025 compared with the prior year, even as Indonesia’s 2025 production was forecast at 47 million tonnes, a 3% year-over-year increase. That combination—more supply and tougher access in some markets—sets up the logic for redirecting volumes toward faster-growing demand corridors.
Why BRICS-Oriented Diversification Fits the New Trade Map
Asia remains central to demand, and it overlaps with the countries shaping BRICS-linked trade diplomacy. One market report highlights that demand is increasingly shaped by populous Asian economies, while another notes rising demand for edible oils and processed food products is driving growth in the Asia Pacific palm oil market. India and China are repeatedly cited as critical. India imported $4.5 billion worth of palm oil in 2024 alone, while China’s demand was described as softening amid health trends and economic caution. Alongside Asia, Indonesia also redirected shipments to Africa, Central Asia, and the Middle East, where demand grew by 23.6% in 2024—supporting a broader strategy of widening non-Western outlets while keeping exposure diversified.
This pivot is also about rules, not just buyers. The EU’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), set to take effect in December 2025, was described as requiring traceability and “no deforestation” proof for imports. In response, Indonesia was reported as pushing back by developing alternative global standards through the Council of Palm Oil Producing Countries (CPOPC) and BRICS nations. Sustainability constraints are especially acute for smallholders, who manage 40% of Indonesia’s palm oil supply; only 0.3% of their land is certified under the Indonesian Sustainable Palm Oil (ISPO) standard, and compliance costs to meet EUDR were reported as potentially consuming 50% of their annual income. That’s why BRICS-facing relationships are often framed as part of a broader effort to reduce dependency on EU-centered compliance pathways.
Even with export diversification, Indonesia’s domestic policy also reshapes what’s available to ship. Indonesia’s B40 biodiesel mandate—blending 40% palm oil into diesel—was reported as diverting 2 million metric tonnes annually from exports while creating a stable domestic demand base. For buyers, that adds urgency to long-term sourcing plans that account for biodiesel-driven supply diversion across Indonesia and Malaysia. For sellers, it reinforces the need to keep multiple channels open: traditional food processing demand, industrial uses, and sustainability-linked segments such as RSPO-certified and traceable supply chains. Major firms are also positioned for this environment, with reports highlighting supply-chain scale and sustainability investments among leaders such as Wilmar and Golden Agri-Resources.
What is driving Indonesia’s push to diversify palm oil trade beyond Western markets?
How large is Indonesia’s role in global palm oil supply and exports?
How does the Indonesia palm oil BRICS export topic connect to sustainability rules?
What do the sources say about smallholders and certification challenges in Indonesia?
How does Indonesia’s B40 biodiesel mandate affect export availability?